How the numbers are made

Per-model depreciation curves

Every model gets its own curve of the form value = P₀ · (1 − rate)age · e−k·excess km. Each parameter means something: P₀ is the as-new price the curve implies, rate is the annual value loss, and k is how much above-average mileage (beyond ~20,000 km/year) hurts resale. We fit these with ordinary least squares on log-transformed listing data, with no black boxes, so we can explain any number we show.

We refuse to show numbers we can't stand behind: a model is hidden entirely when its fit has too few listings (<30), explains the data poorly (R² < 0.5), or produces an implausible rate. Fits on thinner evidence are labeled low-confidence.

What "estimated" means

Curves labeled estimated come from our calibrated market model (per-segment depreciation figures tuned to the UAE market) rather than from a live feed of real listings. They are honest ballparks, genuinely different per model (a Land Cruiser holds value at roughly 8%/year; a German executive sedan sheds ~20%/year), but they are not yet fitted to live market data. As real listing data lands, the label disappears per model.

Resale is anchored to what you pay

The fitted curve is rescaled through your actual purchase price and the car's age and odometer at purchase, so predicted resale follows your entry point and can never exceed what you paid. We show a 10-90% range from the fit's residuals, not a single false-precision number.

Curves are fitted on asking prices, and nobody sells at ask: we apply a selling friction (default 5%, adjustable) for dealer margin or negotiation. This is also why "just resell it next month" isn't free money.

What the buy side includes

• Depreciation (via the anchored curve, net of resale at exit, minus selling friction)
• Comprehensive insurance (~3% of current value/year, re-quoted yearly, AED 1,300 floor)
• Registration renewal (~AED 420/year)
• Maintenance, scaled by wear (the higher of the car's age and its odometer-implied age) and by vehicle class
• Financing: UAE flat-rate loans (interest = principal × flat rate × years, level installments); exiting before the loan ends settles the remaining principal (straight-line approximation)
• Opportunity cost: the return your capital could have earned (default 4%/year) on the money tied up in the car: down payment plus principal repaid

What the rent side includes

• Monthly long-term rental payments
• Excess-mileage charges when your driving exceeds the rental allowance

Fuel and Salik are excluded on both sides: an owner and a renter pay them alike, so they cancel out of the comparison. Rental prices typically include insurance, registration, and maintenance, which is exactly why the comparison is non-trivial.

The break-even rent

Because rent enters the rental total linearly, there is a single monthly rate at which both paths cost the same over your holding period. Below it, renting wins; above it, buying wins. That number, not anyone's opinion, is the verdict.

All figures are estimates for decision support, not financial advice. Check your actual insurance quote, loan offer, and rental contract.